The deep historical forces that explain Trump’s win
The research team I lead studies cycles of political integration and disintegration over the past 5,000 years. We have found that societies, organised as states, can experience significant periods of peace and stability lasting, roughly, a century or so.
they then enter periods of social unrest and political breakdown. e.g. the Roman empire, the English civil war ... they slid into crisis, and then emerged from it.
theguardian.com/us-news/2024/n…
The deep historical forces that explain Trump’s win
Our research shows that political breakdown, from the Roman Empire to the Russian revolution, follows a clear pattern: workers’ wages stagnate, while elites multiplyGuardian staff reporter (The Guardian)
The Enemy is Within
in reply to The Enemy is Within • • •The deep historical forces that explain Trump’s win
we’ve found three common factors:
Popular Immiseration
Elite Overproduction
State Breakdown.
The Enemy is Within
in reply to The Enemy is Within • • •Popular Immiseration
To get a better understanding of these concepts and how they are influencing American politics in 2024, we need to travel back in time to the 1930s, when an unwritten social contract came into being in the form of Franklin D Roosevelt’s New Deal.
For roughly 50 years the interests of workers and the interests of owners were kept in balance, and overall income inequality remained remarkably low.
That social contract began to break down in the late 1970s.
The Enemy is Within
in reply to The Enemy is Within • • •Popular Immiseration
The power of unions was undermined, taxes on the wealthy cut back, workers’ wages started to lag behind. etc etc
The result was a decline in many aspects of quality of life for the majority of Americans.
One shocking way this became evident was in changes to the average life expectancy, which stalled and even went into reverse (and this started well before the Covid pandemic).
That’s what we term “popular immiseration”.
The Enemy is Within
in reply to The Enemy is Within • • •"Popular immiseration and resulting discontent needs to be channeled against the governing regime, and this requires organization by breakaway elites, so-called “counter-elites”.[ix] Without such leaders and organization, non-elite workers have been reduced to voting for populist, anti-systemic politicians, like Donald Trump. "
peterturchin.com/when-a-i-come…
When A.I. Comes for the Elites
Peter TurchinThe Enemy is Within
in reply to The Enemy is Within • • •Pertinent
The Antitrust Revolution
Liberal democracy’s last stand against Big Tech
Barry C. Lynn
It is hard to overstate the effects of these changes. Look at almost every crisis in America today and down the chain of causation we will find a monopolist. Inflation, shortages of drugs, the breakdown of supply chains, our industrial dependence on China. The cost of buying or renting a home or a car. How far we must drive to a hospital or to find fresh produce.
archive.today/2024.12.25-12261…